By Mike Porcaro
Midwest Thoroughbred
www.mwtmag.com
“Contentious,”
is what one veteran turf writer told me when I asked him what he thought about
the field in the 138th running of the Kentucky Oaks.
I guess a
race featuring Grace Hall, On Fire Baby,
Broadway’s Alibi and Summer Applause and others of similar talent could be
called contentious.
#9 Grace Hall….is the 5-2 favorite after winning
the Gulfstream Park Oaks (GII) by 6-1/2 lengths at the 1-1/8 distance and
losing by just a neck in the Davona Dale (GII) in her two races as a three-year
old. Lifetime, the Empire Maker daughter is 6/4-2-0 with $809,000 in winnings.
But today she takes on the challenge of #1
On Fire Baby and #6 Broadway’s Alibi
with both posting Beyer speed figures well into the 90’s in each of their last
two races. Broadway Alibi hit the 100 mark in winning the Forward gal (GII) two
back.
All three of
these horses appear to be able to handle the 1-1/8 miles distance and we could
see a three horse race. However, #4
Eden’s Moon, 12-1 on the ML, who has won two of her four career races with
a second and a third, looks like she can stretch too and should be in the mix.
Of much
interest is #3 Summer Applause, the
Bret Calhoun charge, who lost by a head in the Fair Grounds Oaks to #9 Believe You Can and won the Rachel
Alexandra (GIII) in February. She hit speed figures of 95 and 96 in those
races. At 15-1, she is a must include.
The one that
intrigues me is #8 Jemima’s Pearl
(Distorted Humor), who made her second U.S. start at Oak Lawn in the
Fantasy (GII) finishing third just two out. Her first 5 races were run in
Ireland. The stretch from 1-1/16 to 1-1/8 will help and her 10-1 odds are
appealing. Looks to improve and can win this.
#5 Hard Not to Like is hard not to like after finishing
second by just ¾ in the Ashland. What I like most is that she also finished
just three back to 2011 BC Turf Filly’s winner Stephanie’s Kitten in that race
placing fifth.
I don’t know
what happened to #9 Believe You Can
in the Rachel Alexandra where she finished more than 7 from the winner, but she
bounced back well in winning the Fair Ground Oaks. Rosie ride for Larry Jones
and the jock have already run a big one today with St. John’s River in the
LaTroienne.
I can’t
dismiss #13 Amie’s Dini for part,
but the post hurts as does her running style in a speed laden race. That said
St. John’s River came in second in this race last year off the same post. Her
problem is that she runs up front and doesn’t close the way St. John’s does and
with a ton of speed up front, including her, I doubt she can win.
#11 Karlovy Vary won the Ashland and that’s good. In
her lone dirt race, and it was at this track, she lost by more than 12 lengths
and that’s bad. The post doesn’t help, but James Graham up does.
Mike’s Picks
#6 Broadway’s Alibi….the work coming
into this, the form and 4 straight wins….to
win and place. Not crazy about this race being a speed ball for her, but in
Johnny V. I trust.
#1 On Fire Baby….2 for 2 at this
track; Joe Johnson is the right pilot to take her off the rail and stalk toward
the finishing close.
#8 Jemima’s Pearl….more than a hunch;
much improvement today and Talamo is moving up the charts.
#2 Grace Hall….got to love her, but I
think speed here might hurt.
#3 Summer Applause…..part of the
speed package, but should sit back a bit.
$20 ex key: 6/1
$10 ex key: 6/2,3,8
$5 ex whl: 1,2,3,8/6
$3 tri whl: 6/1,2,3,8/1,2,3,4,5,8
$1 tri whl: 1,3,6/1,2,3,6/1,2,3,4,5,6,8
No comments:
Post a Comment