Saturday, May 5, 2012

139th Kentucky Derby Analysis and Picks


By Mike Porcaro
Midwest Thoroughbred
www.mwtmag.com

This is the most competitive Kentucky Derby that I can remember in a long, long time and it should be a great bettor’s race in addition to being just a great race!

Since any number of 10 or 11 horses can win this race, it’s hard to separate most of them, I’ve decided to do something I haven’t ever done by using a handicapping angle that has been gaining a bit of steam the past few years among the better 'cappers.

The theory is based on this: the majority of winners who have won the Kentucky Derby in the past 50 years have been in the lead or second with a furlong to the wire.

So I did some rationalizing and devised a handicapping method to play this angle. First, I looked at every horse that has raced 1-1/8 miles, the closest distance to the 1-1/4 miles distance of the Big Race. I reviewed which horses were either in the lead or second at the precise distance they would need to be to win the Derby, if my theory is correct.

Next, I looked at their speed figures. Then, I rated each track in which each horse raced while being first or second in the stretch for speed and bias. Next, I assigned added weight to each horse that raced and won, placed or showed at Churchill Downs. For ties, I gave the edge to a horse that might have beaten the one he is tied with or beaten one of the higher rated horses.

While this system is somewhat calculated, I believe that I might be close to correct. 

Here are the rankings:
1)      Gemologist                  116
2)      Bodemeister                111
3)      Alpha                          104
4)      Daddy Nose Best        104
5)      Hansen                        104
6)      Dullahan                      101
7)      Creative Cause            101
8)      Union Rags                  100
9)      I’ll Have Another         100
10)  Take Charge Indy          99 

I might be totally full of canal water on this, but I will give it a go.

My Picks:

#15 Gemologist to win and place…..Undefeated in his career and ready to keep on rollin’.

#6 Bodemeister….Pound for pound he is speed of speed, but, while trends in the Derby have been falling by the wayside, I equate a horse not winning the Derby as an unraced two-year old for 130 years with Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak.

#11 Alpha….If you like Gemologist, you might like him. I believe Gemologist is a shade or two better. He was my early Derby pick and might still be had I not analyzed using the angle I chose.

#10 Daddy Nose Best….A real “x” factor here, horses that have come out of the El Camino and Sunland Derby have done OK here (Dennis of Cork; Mine That Bird). I think he is flying at the end and will pick up a major share (Top 5).

#14 Hansen….I am not a fan, but if they run him smart, which wasn’t the case, in my opinion, in his Blue Grass race, he can be in the Top 5 team photo.

#5 Dullahan…..I really like this guy. He is the closer of closers, but can he stay close enough to kick it home in the stretch if there is speed galore upfront?

#8 Creative Cause….This is a great horse and he isn’t overmatched by any means. I am a bit skeptical about how he was handled this week.

#4 Union Rags…..As much as I like liked him in the preps, I had to reconsider based on his Florida Derby performance and match-ups in the second tier coming to the top of the stretch. 

#19 I’ll Have Another…..Great potential for Top 5 honors. In the long run, he might prove to be the best of the Californians.

#3 Take Charge Indy….Very nice backstory on the Illinois owners. I am not crazy about the post and wonder if he rates with the Top 7 or 8 I’ve selected.

$15 ex key: 15/5,6,10,11,14
$8 ex key: 15/3,4,8,19
$5 ex wheel: 6,10,11,15/3,4,8,19
$4 tri wheel: 15/5,6,10,11,14/3,4,5,6,8,11,14,19
$1 tri wheel: 6,10,11,15/5,6,10,11,14,15/3,4,5,6,8,10,11,14,15,19

Consider playing these at long odds to place and show (10-1 or better): Alpha, Creative Cause Take Charge Indy, I’ll Have Another, Hansen.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!




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