Californians rock the field and other surprises

Four horses out of California tracks finished among the top six finishers, including the top two finishers, a surprise to many who thought that the eastern horses would dominate the race.

Aside from the winning horse, I’ll Have Another, the first winner out of Santa Anita since 1989, Bodemeister finished second with Creative Cause and Liason running big races. One of the longest shots on the board, Liason, who came out of the 20-hole at odds of 26-1, finished a very game sixth. Creative Cause was a prime player and he finished in fifth place.

Went the Day Well at 14-1, finished fourth coming from 17^th place in the early going. . Rousing Sermon, out of the tough two post and at odds of 18-1, surprised many by finishing in eighth place.

On the other side of the coin, Gemologist, 16^th, and favorite Union Rags, 7^th, disappointed their backers.

Who are the Connections of I’ll Have Another?

Jockey Mario Gutierrez is a 25-year old jockey from Mexico who began riding in Canada. He was the leading jockey at Hastings in Vancouver, BC before taking his tack to southern California. Kentucky Derby 138 was his first, the 42^nd jockey to do so in his first Derby outing…..on Cinco de Mayo!

Trainer Doug O’Neill won the 2012 Kentucky Derby for the first time in three tries. He trained 2007 entrant Great Hunter, who finished 13^th. He also trained the great Lava Man. O’Neill has 1600 career wins in a career that started in 1986. He took out his license in 1994.

Owner J. Paul Reddam, a native of Canada, earned a Ph.D in philosophy at USC. He is President of CashCall, a finance company. Reddam started in the harness racing industry and now has 25 thoroughbreds in training. He started two horses in the Kentucky Derby in 2007, Liquidity and Great Hunter.

I’ll Have Another Joins the immortals by winning Kentucky Derby 138

I’ll Have Another, with a masterful ride by jockey Martin Gutierrez, joined the ranks of the immortals by winning the 138^th running of the Kentucky Derby.

With Bodemesier taking the lead out of the gate and I’ll Have Another set behind the leader by about 12 lengths in 15^th place, the jockey moved in position to stalk before Gutierrez gunned him to catch the leader in deep stretch. The winning margin was 1-1/2 lengths with I’ll Have Another looking like he could go another 3 furlongs.

Trainer Doug O’Neill said after the race that his faith in I’ll Have Another never waned despite the son of Flower Alley having been considered by some a cut below other California Derby contenders. “That race (The Robert B. Lewis that he won at 43-1) really surprised me. They wanted to try that spot (the Lewis) to see if he was a Derby hose and then he repeated in the Santa Anita Derby.”

I’ll Have Another went off at odds of 15-1 and paid $32.40.

“I don’t know what to say,” Gutierrez said. “Thanks to Mr. (Paul) Reddam , the owner, for having the confidence he showed in me at Santa Anita….” Gutierrez kicked around tracks in Canada before getting his shot in California.

“Maryland here we come, baby!” O’Neill said about I’ll Have Another going to the Preakness in two weeks.

Bodemeister, who led for most of the race, finished second with Dullahan coming from deep stretch to close a strong third.

More than 160,000 attend Kentucky Derby 138…a new record

While the official attendance hasn’t been announced, Churchill Vice President of Communications told the crowd during a presentation before the Derby that “a new attendance record has been set. More than 160,000 in attendance.”

More to come soon.

Little Mike gets big win in Woodford Reserve Turf Classic

Travers.Manley@KyDerby.com

LOUISVILLE, KY (Saturday, May 5, 2012) – 

Priscilla Vaccarezza’s Little Mike continued a major afternoon for trainer Dale Romans by posting a front-running 2 ½-length triumph over Slim Shadey (GB) in the 26^th running of the $561,500 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Grade I) on Saturday afternoon at Churchill Downs.

        Earlier on the Kentucky Derby Day card, Romans sent out Shackleford to a victory in the Churchill Downs Presented by Navistar (GII).

        Ridden by Joe Bravo, Little Mike led the field of 11 through fractions of :23.78, :48.27 and 1:12.81 while being unchallenged. Little Mike, who has now won 10 of 13 turf starts, continued to the wire unopposed and covered the 1 1/8 miles on a Matt Winn Turf Course labeled as “good” in 1:48.81.

        Little Mike, 5-year-old Florida-bred son of Spanish Steps out of the Wavering Monarch mare Hay Jude, added $327,242 to his bankroll and increased his career earnings to $830,412 with a record of 17-10-2-0.

        Little Mike returned $26.40, $13.40 and $8.20. Slim Shadey, ridden by David Flores, returned $11.60 and $6.80 with Brilliant Speed rallying for third a half-length back under John Velazquez and paying $6.40 to show.

        Doubles Partner finished a nose back in fourth and was followed in order by Data Link, Papaw Bodie, Turallure, Turbo Compressor, Get Stormy, Boxeur des Rues and Al Khali.

Groupie Doll shatters track record in winning Grade I Humana Distaff

LOUISVILLE, KY (Saturday, May 5, 2012) – 

Fred Bradley, trainer Buff Bradley, Carl Hurst and Brent Burns’ Groupie Doll made shambles of the field in winning the 26^th running of the $334,500 Humana Distaff (Grade I) for fillies and mares by 7 ¼ lengths in track record time.

        Ridden by Rajiv Maragh, Groupie Doll ran the seven furlongs on a fast main track in 1:20.44 to break the track record of 1:20.50 set by Alannan on May 5, 2001 and the stakes record of 1:20.70 established by Dream Supreme in 2001.

        It was the second consecutive Grade I victory for Groupie Doll, who had won the Vinery Madison at Keeneland on April 12. Left in her wake were the 1-2 finishers from last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (GI) here, Musical Romance and Switch.

        Mildly Offensive led the field of nine sprinters through the first quarter-mile in :22.42 with Groupie Doll in closest pursuit. Maragh moved Groupie Doll to the lead on the far turn and poured it on in the lane without being threatened.

        A 4-year-old Kentucky-bred daughter of Bowman’s Band out of the Silver Deputy mare Deputy Doll, Groupie Doll earned $199,094 with the victory and increased her earnings to $688,850 with a record of 13-6-3-2.

        Groupie Doll returned $8.20, $4.40 and $3.20. Musical Romance, ridden by Juan Leyva, returned $5.40 and $4 in finishing 5 ¼ lengths in front of Magical Feeling, who finished third under Roberto Alvarado Jr., and paid $5.80 to show.

        Mildly Offensive finished another three-quarters of a length back in fourth and was followed in order by Switch, Sassy Image, Salty Strike, Hot Summer and Fantasy of Flight.

Hungry Island wins Churchill Distaff Turf Mile

Travers.Manley@KyDerby.com

LOUISVILLE, KY (Saturday, May 5, 2012) –  

Emory Hamilton’s homebred Hungry Island collared Tapitsfly at the eighth pole and then drew off to win the 27^th running of the $223,400 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Presented by American Commercial Lines (Grade II) by a length on Saturday afternoon at Churchill Downs.

        Trained by Shug McGaughey and ridden by John Velazquez, Hungry Island ran the mile on a Matt Winn Turf Course labeled as “good” in 1:36.20.

        Daisy Devine, winner of all four of her career starts on turf, led the field of seven through fractions of :24.78 and :48.68 with Marketing Mix and Tapitsfly in closest pursuit.

        At the head of the lane, Ramon Dominguez sent Tapitsfly to the lead with Velazquez swinging Hungry Island five wide from the back of the pack. Hungry Island drew even at midstretch and then pulled away for her first victory since the Lake Placid (GII) in August at Saratoga.

       

        The victory was worth $135,738 to Hungry Island, a 4-year-old daughter of More Than Ready out of the A.P. Indy mare Flying Passage, and increased her bankroll to $390,770 with a record of 12-5-2-4.

        Hungry Island returned mutuels of $13.80, $6.40 and $4.60. Tapitsfly returned $6 and $3.80 with La Reine Lionne finishing 1 ½ lengths back in third under Javier Castellano and paying $5 to show.

        Favored Marketing Mix finished 1 ½ lengths back in fourth and was followed in order by Daisy Devine, Heavenly Landing and City to City.

Shackleford outduels Amazombie to win the Churchill Downs

Travers.Manley@KyDerby.com

LOUISVILLE, KY (Saturday, May 5, 2012) – Michael Lauffer and Bill Cubbedge’s homebred Shackleford outdueled Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade I) winner Amazombie in a dazzling stretch duel to win the 78^th running of the $441,600 Churchill Downs Presented by Navistar (GI) by a length on Saturday afternoon.

        Ridden by Jesus Castanon and trained by Dale Romans, Shackleford notched his first victory since winning the Preakness last May. In his past two Churchill Downs appearances, Shackleford had finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby (GI) and second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (GI).

        Shackleford covered the seven furlongs on a fast main track in 1:21.06.

        Will’s Wildcat led the field of eight sprinters through a first quarter-mile in :21.96 with Shackleford and Amazombie, ridden by Mike Smith, in closest pursuit.

        Amazombie and Shackleford cruised past Will’s Wildcat leaving the backstretch and raced as a team to the head of the lane. Amazombie took a brief advantage only to have Shackleford rally back on the inside in the final sixteenth of a mile to secure the victory.

        A 4-year-old son of Forestry out of the Unbridled mare Oatsee, Shackleford added $265,578 to his bankroll that swelled to $2,291,381 with a record of 15-4-4-1.

        Shackleford returned $5.60, $3.20 and $2.40. Amazombie paid $3.20 and $2.40 in finishing five lengths in front of Gantry, who paid $4.20 to show under Richard Eramia.

        Alma d’Oro was another three-quarters of a length back in fourth and was followed in order by Smiling Tiger, Apriority, Hamazing Destiny and Will’s Wildcat.

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Great Attack rallies late to win Twin Spires Turf Sprint

LOUISVILLE, KY (Saturday, May 5, 2012) –
 

 Houyhnhnm Stable’s Great Attack surged past favored  Bridgetown in deep stretch to win the 18^th running of the $150,350 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Presented by GE Appliances (Grade III) by  three-quarters of a length, the first of six stakes on the Kentucky Derby Day card.

 Trained by Wesley Ward and ridden by Joel Rosario, Great Attack had finished fourth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (GII) here in his lone previous try over the Matt Winn Turf Course.

Bridgetown, ridden by John Velazquez, had spurted away from the field in upper stretch and maintained a daylight margin inside the sixteenth pole, but could not hold off Great Attack.

Great Attack, a 5-year-old Florida-bred son of Greatness out of the Storm Cat mare Cat Attack, covered the five furlongs on a Matt Winn Turf Course labeled as “good” in :56.61.

        The victory was worth $86,692 and increased Great Attack’s earnings to $378,010 with a record of 17-6-4-2.

        Great Attack returned $10.80, $4.60 and $3.60. Bridgetown returned $3.40 and $3 in finishing two lengths in front of Cactus Son, who paid $8 to show under Garrett Gomez.

Great Mills was another 1 ¼ lengths back in fourth and was followed in order by Spinning Move, Chamberlain Bridge, Stormy Going, Amanecer de Oro, Santo Gato, Shabaab, Speight the Halo and City Sage.

139th Kentucky Derby Analysis and Picks

By Mike Porcaro

Midwest Thoroughbred

www.mwtmag.com

This is the most competitive Kentucky Derby that I can remember in a long, long time and it should be a great bettor’s race in addition to being just a great race!

Since any number of 10 or 11 horses can win this race, it’s hard to separate most of them, I’ve decided to do something I haven’t ever done by using a handicapping angle that has been gaining a bit of steam the past few years among the better 'cappers.

The theory is based on this: the majority of winners who have won the Kentucky Derby in the past 50 years have been in the lead or second with a furlong to the wire.

So I did some rationalizing and devised a handicapping method to play this angle. First, I looked at every horse that has raced 1-1/8 miles, the closest distance to the 1-1/4 miles distance of the Big Race. I reviewed which horses were either in the lead or second at the precise distance they would need to be to win the Derby, if my theory is correct.

Next, I looked at their speed figures. Then, I rated each track in which each horse raced while being first or second in the stretch for speed and bias. Next, I assigned added weight to each horse that raced and won, placed or showed at Churchill Downs. For ties, I gave the edge to a horse that might have beaten the one he is tied with or beaten one of the higher rated horses.

While this system is somewhat calculated, I believe that I might be close to correct. 

Here are the rankings:

1)      Gemologist                  116

2)      Bodemeister                111

3)      Alpha                          104

4)      Daddy Nose Best        104

5)      Hansen                        104

6)      Dullahan                      101

7)      Creative Cause            101

8)      Union Rags                  100

9)      I’ll Have Another         100

10)  Take Charge Indy          99 

I might be totally full of canal water on this, but I will give it a go.

My Picks:

#15 Gemologist to win and place…..Undefeated in his career and ready to keep on rollin’.

#6 Bodemeister….Pound for pound he is speed of speed, but, while trends in the Derby have been falling by the wayside, I equate a horse not winning the Derby as an unraced two-year old for 130 years with Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak.

#11 Alpha….If you like Gemologist, you might like him. I believe Gemologist is a shade or two better. He was my early Derby pick and might still be had I not analyzed using the angle I chose.

#10 Daddy Nose Best….A real “x” factor here, horses that have come out of the El Camino and Sunland Derby have done OK here (Dennis of Cork; Mine That Bird). I think he is flying at the end and will pick up a major share (Top 5).

#14 Hansen….I am not a fan, but if they run him smart, which wasn’t the case, in my opinion, in his Blue Grass race, he can be in the Top 5 team photo.

#5 Dullahan…..I really like this guy. He is the closer of closers, but can he stay close enough to kick it home in the stretch if there is speed galore upfront?

#8 Creative Cause….This is a great horse and he isn’t overmatched by any means. I am a bit skeptical about how he was handled this week.

#4 Union Rags…..As much as I like liked him in the preps, I had to reconsider based on his Florida Derby performance and match-ups in the second tier coming to the top of the stretch. 

#19 I’ll Have Another…..Great potential for Top 5 honors. In the long run, he might prove to be the best of the Californians.

#3 Take Charge Indy….Very nice backstory on the Illinois owners. I am not crazy about the post and wonder if he rates with the Top 7 or 8 I’ve selected.

$15 ex key: 15/5,6,10,11,14

$8 ex key: 15/3,4,8,19

$5 ex wheel: 6,10,11,15/3,4,8,19

$4 tri wheel: 15/5,6,10,11,14/3,4,5,6,8,11,14,19

$1 tri wheel: 6,10,11,15/5,6,10,11,14,15/3,4,5,6,8,10,11,14,15,19

Consider playing these at long odds to place and show (10-1 or better): Alpha, Creative Cause Take Charge Indy, I’ll Have Another, Hansen.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Record handle for Oaks Day 2012

Friday, May 4, was a memorable one for Churchill Downs and not just because it was Oaks Day. All-sources handle was up 6.5% to a record of $39.9 million, an increase of $2.4 million over last year, which was a record handle.

Friday’s on-track attendance was the second largest of all-time with 112,500 people entering the gates of Churchill downs. The Oaks Day attendance record was set in 2010 when 116,000 went to the races.

Leparoux hot after first three races

Julian Leparoux rode home the winners in the first two races of the day at Churchill Downs and just missed a win, settling for second place in race 3. The Frenchman  won on Atigun in race one and with Big Ring in the second contest. Golden Ticket, Leparoux’s mount in the third race, couldn’t catch the winner, 15-1 shot Skyring.

Leparoux will ride Union Rags, currently the 9-2 favorite, in the Kentucky Derby later today.

Churchill Downs track conditions update

Track now rated FAST

As of 11am EDT, track officials have again upgraded the dirt track at Churchill Downs to “fast.”

Weather & track report from Churchill Down

Track upgraded to muddy; turf “good”

May 5, 2012

It’s hot and muggy as of 10 am local time here at Churchill Downs with partly cloudy skies and a bit of haze after 1-1/4 inches of rain last night.

The first race was just completed. The horses went relatively slowly on the track rated as sloppy, but now upgraded to “muddy.” Turf is rated “good.”

It is a drying track, but that might not last as there is a 30% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon prior to the 6:27 pm EDT post time for the Kentucky Derby. The high temperature is expected to be 86 degrees with 48% humidity.

Successful Dan breaks track record in Alysheba

LOUISVILLE, KY (Friday, May 4, 2012) – Morton Fink’s Successful Dan wore down Fort Larned in deep stretch to win the ninth running of the $337,800 Alysheba Presented by Besilu Stables (Grade II) by a length in track record time Friday afternoon at Churchill Downs.

        Successful Dan ran the 1 1/16 miles on a fast main track in 1:41.04 to break the track record of 1:41.27 established by Brass Hat on July 8, 2007 and shattered the stakes record of 1:42.32 established by Limehouse in 2005.

        Ridden by Julien Leparoux and trained by Charles Lopresti, Successful Dan won for the second time in two 2012 starts following a layoff of 17 months because of injury.

        A 6-year-old gelded son of Successful Appeal out of the Wolf Power mare Lisa Danielle, Successful Dan was making his first appearance at Churchill Downs since being disqualified from victory in the 2010 Clark Handicap (GI).

        Longshot Plutonium set the pace, but was collared leaving the backstretch by Fort Larned under Javier Castellano. At the head of the lane, Fort Larned turned back a bid from Mucho Macho Man, the third-place finisher in last year’s Kentucky Derby, but could not fend off Successful Dan 

       

        The victory was worth $203,153 and increased Successful Dan’s career earnings to $596,608 with a record of 10-7-1-1.

        Successful Dan returned $10.20, $5 and $3.20. Fort Larned returned $6.20 and $3.60 with Mucho Macho Man, finishing six lengths back under Ramon Dominguez, returning $2.80 to show.

Contact: Travers Manley

Media Services Coordinator & Staff Writer

(502) 636-4462 (Office) * (502) 751-5716 (Mobile)

Travers.Manley@KyDerby.com

Believe You Can outduels Broadway's Alibi to win 138TH Kentucky Oaks

 LOUISVILLE, KY (Friday, May 4, 2012)

Brereton Jones’ homebred Believe You Can wore down pace-setting Broadway’s Alibi inside the eighth pole and drew off to win the 138^th running of the $1 million Kentucky Oaks by three-quarters of a length before a crowd of 112,552 on Friday afternoon at Churchill Downs.

        The attendance was the second largest in Oaks history, surpassed by only the 116,046 on hand for the 2010 running.

        The Kentucky Oaks victory was the second for Brereton Jones and trainer Larry Jones, who teamed to win the 2008 Run for the Lilies with Proud Spell.

        Ridden by Rosie Napravnik, who became the first female rider to win the Kentucky Oaks, Believe You Can ran the 1 1/8 miles over a fast track in 1:49.50.

        Broadway’s Alibi, ridden by John Velazquez, led the field of 14 through fractions of :23.12, :47.47 and 1:11.58 with Believe You Can in closest pursuit. Turning for home, Napravnik moved on Believe You Can, hooking the leader and racing as a team to midstretch before Believe You Can slowly edged away.

        Winner of the Fair Grounds Oaks (GII) in her most recent start, Believe You Can added $564,200 to her bankroll and increased her career earnings to $1,059,484 with a record of 9-6-0-0.

        Believe You Can, a dark bay daughter of Proud Citizen out the El Prado-IRE mare El Fasto, paid $29.60, $11.80 and $6.40 to her backers. Broadway’s Alibi returned $6 and $4.20 with favored Grace Hall finishing third 2 ½ length back under Javier Castellano and returning $3.20 to show.

        Summer Applause finished three-quarters of a length back in fourth and was followed in order by On Fire Baby, Hard Not to Like, Sacristy, Amie’s Dini, And Why Not, Jemima’s Pearl, Colonial Empress, Karlovy Vary, Yara and Eden’s Moon.

       

Kentucky Oaks 138--Quotes from winning jockey Rosie Napravnik

Travers.Manley@KyDerby.com

 

ROSIE NAPRAVNIK (Jockey) – "It's unbelievable. I'm just so happy and so grateful to be here. There's a lot of people that are a big part of me getting to this and winning this race and I just can't thank everybody enough.

        "I cried a little but I don't think I'm done crying yet.    

     "Dream trip, absolutely.

        "Last year was kind of a tease (finishing a fast-closing second on St. John’s River), I was so close but not there, and this year I was determined to be the one in the winner's circle and I had the right horse to do it."

138TH Kentucky Oaks--Quotes from losing jockeys & trainers

JOHN VELAZQUEZ (Broadway’s Alibi, second) – “I think she handled the track OK but the first time over a track, she paddles a lot. She lost some momentum. The ground broke away from her. I don’t think the distance hurt her, I think the track didn’t help. She still ran a huge race.”

JAVIER CASTELLANO (Grace Hall, third) – “The track was playing for speed today. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out for me. They didn’t come back to me. I was third best today.”

GARRETT GOMEZ (Summer Applause, fourth) – “I had a really good trip and I got to save a lot of ground up until the point where I needed to go. She started disappearing in my hands a little bit and she was losing some confidence just having to sit there and wait so long. The pace wasn’t particularly fast the way everyone thought it would be and when I found us kind of going a little slow there wasn’t much we could do from the three hole in a 14-horse field. She kicked on well and she ran respectable, but it was a plus-minus kind of trip. She saved the ground but she had to wait a long time.”

JOE JOHNSON (On Fire Baby, fifth) – “She broke good, but I had to use her to get into position. She was a little rank being down in there. She just ran a little flat in the stretch and never gave me her usual kick. She pulled up great. She has a Grade 1 waiting for her.”

RAFAEL BEJARANO (Hard Not to Like, sixth) – “I didn’t have any trouble, we had a clean trip. She showed me a good kick late in the race.”

MIKE SMITH (SACRISTY, seventh) – “My trip was great. She handled the distance. She sure did, man. I was proud of her. She’s going to get better.”

JON COURT (Amie’s Dini, eighth) – “The outside post didn't help us. We weren't able to save to the ground we wanted to. It wasn't a horrible trip, but we did get fanned out pretty good turning for home."

JULIEN LEPAROUX (And Why Not, ninth) – “I didn’t have any trouble, we had a clean trip. She showed me a good kick late in the race.”

JOE TALAMO (Jemima’s Pearl, 10^th) – “We had a perfect trip. She kind of hopped at the start, but other than that everything broke apart real nice. I just got outrun.”

JAMES GRAHAM (Karlovy Vary, 12^th) – “I had a good trip but I didn’t have anything to finish with. She ran a good race but just couldn’t pick up with the rest of them.”

JESUS CASTANON (Yara, 13^th) – “I had a good trip. I didn’t think my filly handled the track as good as she did down at Gulfstream (Park). She got a little anxious at the gate once everyone started screaming. Other than that, there’s no excuse.”

MARTIN GARCIA (Eden’s Moon, 14^th) – “She ran OK. I don’t know what happened. She’s better than that. It wasn’t her day.”

TODD PLETCHER (Broadway’s Alibi, second) – “She ran great. John (Velazquez) said she struggled with the racetrack a little bit. It looked like we were going to get lucky with the rain, because she loves the slop. But it didn’t really rain enough. But she ran great.”

ANTHONY DUTROW (Grace Hall, third) – “She had a great trip. Everything went the way we wanted it to. We just were unable to catch the first two.”

BRET CALHOUN (Summer Applause, fourth) – “I thought she ran well. Garrett (Gomez)’s only complaint was he wished he got to let her go when he wanted. He had to hold her up a little bit and she was wanting to go and that’s kind of where you needed to be, seeing the results of the race, you needed to be up there. Other than that we had a great trip, just didn’t get to go when we wanted.”

ANITA CAULEY (Owner, On Fire Baby, fifth) – “She pulled up good, which is the important thing. Today just wasn’t her day.”

GAIL COX (Hard Not to Like, sixth) – “She (Hard Not to Like) got buried down on the rail and couldn’t go anywhere much. But she ran well.”

WAYNE CATALANO (Sacristy, seventh) – “I guess he (Mike Smith) rode her like Zenyatta. I didn’t think she was going to be last, maybe fourth or fifth early, but not last. She was making a nice run, a good middle move, but just had too much to do.”

RON MOQUETT (Amie’s Dini, eighth) – “She’s fine. She just took the worst of it. Jon (Court) did all he could do, but she couldn’t overcome the post (13). She’s happy, but exhausted. The distance certainly wasn’t the factor. It’s just that she ran a mile and a quarter while everyone else ran a mile and an eighth.”

AND WHY NOT (Michael Matz, ninth) – “She just didn’t run today. There’s not much more to say. The speed didn’t come back to me.

BOB BAFFERT (Jemima’s Pearl, 10^th) – “She was in a good spot down the backstretch, but she didn’t kick in turning for home.”

RUSTY ARNOLD (Karlovy Vary, 12^th) – “We didn’t get that bad of trip. We knew that there was a lot speed in the race. She tucked in on the first turn and looked like she was OK until midway on the backside.  That’s when she simply couldn’t keep up with the field. It was gamble for us trying her on the dirt and this one wasn’t good.

BOB BAFFERT (Eden’s Moon, 14^th) – “She didn’t break well and after that she just lost interest. She didn’t run her race.”

Happy Derby, everyone! A recap of Derby day activities

 Here is a recap of Derby Day activites provided by Darren Rogers Senior Director, Communications & Media Services Churchill Downs

Here is a timeline of events today at Churchill Downs for the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands.

As of 8 a.m. ET, the main track was labeled "Sloppy" and the Matt Winn Turf Course was labeled "Good." With a promising weather forecast for the day, those track conditions are likely to change. The National Weather Service forecast for Louisville calls for mostly cloudy skies with a high near 85 and a 50% chance of popup precipitation (between a tenth and quarter of an inch). There'll be a west wind between 3-5 mph.

Training from 6-8 a.m. was cancelled primarily due to lightning in the area. Severe overnight thunderstorms from approximately 1:30 a.m. to daybreak produced at least 1 1/4 inches of rainfall, according to Butch Lehr, Vice President, Track. Lehr and his team graded and sealed the track prior to the storm's overnight arrival. He plans to harrow and float the track this morning to continue to weave the moisture to the top.

Have a great Derby!

Believe You Can wins the 2012 Kentucky Oaks

Rosie, oh Rosie. Napravnik, that is. The diminutive jockey rode Believe You Can in outstanding stalking fashion to win the 138^th running of the Kentucky Oaks.

Broadway’s Alibi took off in good order to lead for most of the race with Believe You Can in tow. In deep stretch the daughter of Proud Citizen answered Rosie’s call to win by a scant ¾ of a length. Broadway’s Alibi ran second with Grace Hall third and Summer Applause fourth.

Napravnik is the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Oaks.  The winner paid $29.00 to win.

More than 112,000 attend Kentucky Oaks Day 2012

Despite temperatures of 86 degrees, high humidity and a severe thunder storm, 112,552 fans attended Kentucky Oaks day 2012 at Churchill Downs.

Fans were not disappointed as two stakes and one track record were broken on this day.

Most happy were the backers of Believe You Can, winner of the 2012 Kentucky Oaks.

Successful Dan is successful in breaking Churchill track record

On a day where two stakes records were set, Successful Dan broke the Churchill Downs track record for 1-1/16 miles on the dirt in a running time of 1:41.04 in The Alysheba (GII). The previous record was 1:41.27 held by Limehouse.

Ridden by Julian Leparoux and trained by Charles Lopresti, Successful Dan wore down Fort Larned in deep stretch for the victory. “This is one of the best horses I’ve ridden so far in my career.” “I didn’t know if he (Successful Dan) could duplicate his race at Keeneland (on April 6). This race shows me he’s come back as the horse he was.” Successful Dan was injured and out for 4 months.

The winner paid 10.20. Fort Larned ran second with Mucho Macho Man third.

Severe weather delay at Churchill, Oaks delayed

Severe storms are headed toward Louisville and expected to arrive around 5pm Eastern time. The infield is being evacuated and the races will be held up for 45 minutes.The Kentucky Oaks is scheduled to go off at 5:45pm Eastern time.

Kentucky Oaks rescheduled for a 6:20 EDT Post; 5:20 CDT

Stephanie’s Kitten, Catalano win the Edgewood in record stakes time

With the tag of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies champion trainer, Wayne Catalano, no doubt, came into the $150,000 Edgewood confident that his gal, Stephanie’s Kitten could win. 

Win she did in record stakes time of 134.86 for the 1-1/16 miles race.

Bumping with the horse to her left, Run a Risk, Stephanie’s Kitten recovered enough to stay close to leader, Welcome Dance. Jockey John Velazquez pressed the button near the ¾ mark and the daughter of Kitten’s Joy rallied for a two length win.

Owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, Stephanie’s Kitten paid $4.00 to win. Firehouse Red was second and welcome Dance was third.

Contested measures the field for Eight Belles record time win

The favorite, Contested, didn’t disappoint her backers in winning the $100,000 Eight Belles in stakes record time of 121.21.

After hopping a bit at the start, Contested quickly regained her footing to challenge Good Deed, the leader into the stretch, to draw away to a 4-3/4 length win.  Off at odds of 1.10-1, Contested, a daughter of Ghostzapper, paid $4.20 to win.

Good Deeds was second with Always Here Too finishing third. Contested was ridden by Martin Garcia for trainer Bob Baffert. Natalie Baffert is the owner.

Kentucky Oaks 138 Analysis and Picks

By Mike Porcaro

Midwest Thoroughbred

www.mwtmag.com

“Contentious,” is what one veteran turf writer told me when I asked him what he thought about the field in the 138^th running of the Kentucky Oaks.

I guess a race featuring Grace Hall, On Fire Baby, Broadway’s Alibi and Summer Applause and others of similar talent could be called contentious.

#9 Grace Hall….is the 5-2 favorite after winning the Gulfstream Park Oaks (GII) by 6-1/2 lengths at the 1-1/8 distance and losing by just a neck in the Davona Dale (GII) in her two races as a three-year old. Lifetime, the Empire Maker daughter is 6/4-2-0 with $809,000 in winnings. But today she takes on the challenge of #1 On Fire Baby and #6 Broadway’s Alibi with both posting Beyer speed figures well into the 90’s in each of their last two races. Broadway Alibi hit the 100 mark in winning the Forward gal (GII) two back.

All three of these horses appear to be able to handle the 1-1/8 miles distance and we could see a three horse race. However, #4 Eden’s Moon, 12-1 on the ML, who has won two of her four career races with a second and a third, looks like she can stretch too and should be in the mix.

Of much interest is #3 Summer Applause, the Bret Calhoun charge, who lost by a head in the Fair Grounds Oaks to #9 Believe You Can and won the Rachel Alexandra (GIII) in February. She hit speed figures of 95 and 96 in those races. At 15-1, she is a must include.

The one that intrigues me is #8 Jemima’s Pearl (Distorted Humor), who made her second U.S. start at Oak Lawn in the Fantasy (GII) finishing third just two out. Her first 5 races were run in Ireland. The stretch from 1-1/16 to 1-1/8 will help and her 10-1 odds are appealing. Looks to improve and can win this.

#5 Hard Not to Like is hard not to like after finishing second by just ¾ in the Ashland. What I like most is that she also finished just three back to 2011 BC Turf Filly’s winner Stephanie’s Kitten in that race placing fifth. 

I don’t know what happened to #9 Believe You Can in the Rachel Alexandra where she finished more than 7 from the winner, but she bounced back well in winning the Fair Ground Oaks. Rosie ride for Larry Jones and the jock have already run a big one today with St. John’s River in the LaTroienne.

I can’t dismiss #13 Amie’s Dini for part, but the post hurts as does her running style in a speed laden race. That said St. John’s River came in second in this race last year off the same post. Her problem is that she runs up front and doesn’t close the way St. John’s does and with a ton of speed up front, including her, I doubt she can win.

#11 Karlovy Vary won the Ashland and that’s good. In her lone dirt race, and it was at this track, she lost by more than 12 lengths and that’s bad. The post doesn’t help, but James Graham up does.

Mike’s Picks

#6 Broadway’s Alibi….the work coming into this, the form and 4 straight wins….to win and place. Not crazy about this race being a speed ball for her, but in Johnny V. I trust.

#1 On Fire Baby….2 for 2 at this track; Joe Johnson is the right pilot to take her off the rail and stalk toward the finishing close.

#8 Jemima’s Pearl….more than a hunch; much improvement today and Talamo is moving up the charts.

#2 Grace Hall….got to love her, but I think speed here might hurt.

#3 Summer Applause…..part of the speed package, but should sit back a bit.

#4 Eden’s Moon.  Gets caught in the last furlong to fade?

$20 ex key: 6/1

$10 ex key: 6/2,3,8

$5 ex whl: 1,2,3,8/6

$3 tri whl: 6/1,2,3,8/1,2,3,4,5,8

$1 tri whl: 1,3,6/1,2,3,6/1,2,3,4,5,6,8

Juanita takes the LaTroienne

Longshot Juanita upset 2-5 favorite Plum Pretty in the 27^th running of the LaTroienne (GII) in the 6^th race at Churchill Downs on Oaks Day.

Paying $35.40 to win after going off at 16-1, the daughter of Mineshaft won by a healthy two lengths under a Ramon Dominguez ride. St. John’s River, making her 2012 debut, rallied for second. Plum Pretty finished third.

Trained by Mike Maker, Juanita ran past Plum Pretty, then held off the charge of a rushing St. John’s River. “The favorite went to the lead and I was happy to sit right next to her,” Dominguez said of the stalking trip. The jockey said of trainer Maker, “He just let me ride my race and it worked out great.”