By Mike Porcaro
Midwest Thoroughbred
www.mwtmag.com
This is the
most competitive Kentucky Derby that I can remember in a long, long time and it
should be a great bettor’s race in addition to being just a great race!
Since any
number of 10 or 11 horses can win this race, it’s hard to separate most of
them, I’ve decided to do something I haven’t ever done by
using a handicapping angle that has been gaining a bit of steam the past few
years among the better 'cappers.
The theory
is based on this: the majority of winners who have won the Kentucky Derby in
the past 50 years have been in the lead
or second with a furlong to the wire.
So I did
some rationalizing and devised a handicapping method to play this angle. First,
I looked at every horse that has raced 1-1/8 miles, the closest distance to the
1-1/4 miles distance of the Big Race. I reviewed which horses were either in
the lead or second at the precise distance they would need to be to win the
Derby, if my theory is correct.
Next, I
looked at their speed figures. Then, I rated each track in which each horse
raced while being first or second in the stretch for speed and bias. Next, I
assigned added weight to each horse that raced and won, placed or showed at
Churchill Downs. For ties, I gave the edge to a horse that might have beaten
the one he is tied with or beaten one of the higher rated horses.
While this
system is somewhat calculated, I believe that I might be close to correct.
Here
are the rankings:
1) Gemologist 116
2) Bodemeister 111
3) Alpha 104
4) Daddy Nose Best 104
5) Hansen 104
6) Dullahan 101
7) Creative Cause 101
8) Union Rags 100
9) I’ll Have Another 100
10) Take Charge Indy 99
I might be
totally full of canal water on this, but I will give it a go.
My Picks:
#15 Gemologist to win and place…..Undefeated in his career and ready
to keep on rollin’.
#6 Bodemeister….Pound for pound he is speed of
speed, but, while trends in the Derby have been falling by the wayside, I
equate a horse not winning the Derby as an unraced two-year old for 130 years
with Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak.
#11 Alpha….If you like Gemologist, you might
like him. I believe Gemologist is a shade or two better. He was my early Derby
pick and might still be had I not analyzed using the angle I chose.
#10 Daddy Nose Best….A real “x” factor here, horses that
have come out of the El Camino and Sunland Derby have done OK here (Dennis of
Cork; Mine That Bird). I think he is flying at the end and will pick up a major
share (Top 5).
#14 Hansen….I am not a fan, but if they run him
smart, which wasn’t the case, in my opinion, in his Blue Grass race, he can be
in the Top 5 team photo.
#5 Dullahan…..I really like this guy. He is the
closer of closers, but can he stay close enough to kick it home in the stretch
if there is speed galore upfront?
#8 Creative Cause….This is a great horse and he isn’t
overmatched by any means. I am a bit skeptical about how he was handled this
week.
#4 Union Rags…..As much as I like liked him in the
preps, I had to reconsider based on his Florida Derby performance and match-ups
in the second tier coming to the top of the stretch.
#19 I’ll Have Another…..Great potential for Top 5 honors.
In the long run, he might prove to be the best of the Californians.
#3 Take Charge Indy….Very nice backstory on the Illinois
owners. I am not crazy about the post and wonder if he rates with the Top 7 or
8 I’ve selected.
$15 ex key: 15/5,6,10,11,14
$8 ex key: 15/3,4,8,19
$5 ex wheel: 6,10,11,15/3,4,8,19
$4 tri wheel:
15/5,6,10,11,14/3,4,5,6,8,11,14,19
$1 tri wheel:
6,10,11,15/5,6,10,11,14,15/3,4,5,6,8,10,11,14,15,19
Consider playing these at long odds
to place and show (10-1 or better): Alpha, Creative Cause Take Charge Indy,
I’ll Have Another, Hansen.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
